Abstract:Better forecasting methods were proposed through examining the prediction results of the birth rate of permanent population in Shanghai by 2050.A method of higher reliability was presented by adopting the power function fitting and the corresponding forecasting method is of the least error by comparing with the population birth rate data obtained by the linear regression model and ten kinds of curve regression models.It is found that the average prediction accuracy can be improved by re-forecasting combined with reducing the data scope and using a population prediction software.It is shown that there is a significant limitation to the prediction of permanent population birth rate by using mathematical methods,and it is not suitable for many cases,especially for the prediction of long-term birth rate.In the light of the demography method,recurring to the rule of population development itself can improve the prediction accuracy greatly.