A variable parameter value rolling grey forecasting model(RGM)is constructed,which makes an enhancement to the fixed parameter value RGM.In the fixed parameter value RGM there is a constant parameter value,which is customarily set to 0.5.It is apparent that if the parameter value is decided in consideration of the factors which influence the forecasting objective,better result will be achieved.According to the results of predicting annual Integrated Circuit Industry sales in China,the variable parameter value RGM generates more accurate forecasts.Due to that a lot of calculation work is needed when using this model,an application software is developed taking advantage of the Java for dealing with the processes.The program is of benefit to the application and dissemination of the model proposed.
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LUO E-xiang,罗鄂湘,钱省三,李锐.可变参数动态灰色预测模型的建立与实证研究[J].上海理工大学学报,2006,(5):465-468.