The purpose of the analysis is to provide a useful reference for reducing carbon emissions in Shanghai and make a model for the low carbon development in Chinese cities.The correlation between the carbon emission in Shanghai 2000—2011 and the level of economic development,population size,industrial structure,energy structure and energy intensity was analyzed by using the method of Grey correlation.An exhaustive analysis of the impact of factors was also given.By using the GM(1,1) forecasting model based on sine function to predict carbon emissions,it concludes that it is necessary for Shanghai to strengthen the efforts of energy conservation and emission reduction.By the result,according to the situation of Shanghai,specific countermeasures and corresponding pathes were proposed in order to reduce the carbon emissions in Shanghai.