电动汽车购买意愿的离散选择分析
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(51008195);上海市自然科学基金资助项目(15ZR1428100);上海市一流学科建设资助项目(S1201YLXK)


Discrete Choice Analysis on Demand for Electric Vehicles
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    摘要:

    探索了消费者对电动汽车购买选择行为的影响因素.研究采用意向调查方法,通过设置电动汽车的不同属性(价格、补贴政策、续航里程和充电方式)和水平来获取郑州市民购买电动汽车意愿的行为数据.应用离散选择模型,分析意向数据,建立电动汽车购买意愿的二元logit模型.研究发现:电动汽车的购买价格、政府补贴、续航里程和充电方式均是影响消费者购买的重要因素;男性消费者更容易接受电动汽车;年龄越大的消费者选择电动汽车的倾向越大;驾龄为0~4年的人群较之驾龄为4年以上的人群,选择电动汽车的概率较小;注重电动汽车性能的消费者选择电动汽车的态度更为保守.

    Abstract:

    The influential factors of the demand for electric vehicles were investigated to understand its impact on market shares.A stated preference survey was conducted to collect consumers' hypothetical choice data in Zhengzhou by setting different attributes(price, government subsidies, driving range and charging time) and levels.A binary logit model was developed to analyze the stated preference data.The results by the model show that price, government subsidies, driving range and charging time are all important attributes, and particularly individuals were willing to buy if actual price is lower, range is longer and charging time is less.It is found that male consumers prefer to buy electric vehicles.Meanwhile, older people and younger drivers are more inclined to choose.In addition, it is found that the consumers who focus on quality are less likely to choose electric cars.

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黄冰,干宏程.电动汽车购买意愿的离散选择分析[J].上海理工大学学报,2015,37(4):392-397.

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  • 收稿日期:2014-06-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-09-18
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