上海市汽车燃油消耗因素的系统动力学研究
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上海市一流学科建设资助项目(S1201YLXK)


Analysis on the Fuel Consumption of Automobile in Shanghai Based on System Dynamics
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    摘要:

    汽车燃油产生的尾气是造成空气污染的重要因素,有效控制汽车燃油消耗,可以降低空气污染水平.采用系统动力学的方法和Vensim仿真软件,并基于2004-2014年上海市城市交通的相关数据,构建出上海市汽车燃油消耗的系统动力学模型,利用控制变量法对道路管理水平、汽车限购政策触发条件以及报废率分别进行模拟仿真.分析仿真的结果后发现道路的管理水平与汽车燃油消耗成反比,把汽车限购政策的触发条件设置在230~250万辆之间,汽车报废率维持在5.6%~5.8%,其产生的节能减排效果最为明显.最后基于现阶段上海市节能减排的要求,制定出上、中、下3套降低汽车燃油消耗的方案,为决策者的决策提供理论上的支持.

    Abstract:

    Fuel consumption of automobile is one of the factors that cause air pollution.It is very effective for our environment protection to control the fuel consumption of automobile.According to the theories and methods of system dynamics (SD) and with the help of Vensim software,a SD model for the fuel consumption of automobile in Shanghai was constructed based on the traffic data of Shanghai from 2004 to 2014.The road management level,automobile purchase policy and automobile scrap rate were simulated by the method of control variables.The results show that the road management level is inversely proportional to the fuel consumption of the car and it is most effective for reducing automobile fuel consumption to maintain the number of automobiles between 2.3 million and 2.5 million,and keep the scrap rate between 5.6% and 5.8%.Three schemes were formulated to reduce the fuel consumption of automobile based on the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction in Shanghai,which provided a theoretical support for the policy makers.

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李哲丰,严广乐.上海市汽车燃油消耗因素的系统动力学研究[J].上海理工大学学报,2016,38(4):357-361.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-02-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-09-23
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