基于改进Bi-LSTM和XGBoost的电力负荷组合预测方法
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TM73

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171126);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20YJA630009)


Power load combination forecasting method based on improved Bi-LSTM and XGBoost
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    摘要:

    电力负荷预测在平衡能源分配、经济性和电力系统安全可靠运行方面发挥着重要作用,精准的负荷预测可以降低电力运行的成本和风险,提高电网环境效益和经济效益。首先根据加权灰色关联投影算法对数据进行预处理,然后应用注意力(Attention)机制来改进双向长短期记忆(Bi-LSTM)模型,并结合极端梯度提升(XGBoost)模型构建一种由误差倒数法确定权重的电力负荷组合预测模型,从而得到一种新的短期电力负荷预测方法。通过新加坡电力市场数据集对该方法进行评估,结果显示,该方法的预测结果比单一预测方法更加接近真实数据且误差更小,具备有效性、精准性和实用性的优势。

    Abstract:

    Power load forecasting plays an important role in balancing energy distribution, economy, safe and reliable operation of power system. Accurate load forecasting can reduce the cost and risk of power operation and improve the environmental and economic revenues of power grid. Firstly, the weighted grey relational projection algorithm was used to process the data, then the attention mechanism was applied to improve the bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model. By combining with eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, a power load combination forecasting model with the weight determined by the error reciprocal method was developed, so as to obtain a new short-term power load forecasting method. Finally, based on the Singapore power market data set, the results of the proposed prediction method show that our prediction results are closer to the real data and have less error than the single prediction methods, which reflect the effectiveness, accuracy and practicability of proposed method.

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代业明,周琼.基于改进Bi-LSTM和XGBoost的电力负荷组合预测方法[J].上海理工大学学报,2022,44(2):138-147.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-27
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