疾病传播过程中的层间耦合影响问题研究
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O 157.5; R 181

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174121,71774111);上海高校特聘教授(东方学者)岗位计划资助; 上海市自然科学基金资助项目(21ZR1444100)


Study on the influence of interlayer coupling in the process of disease transmission
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    摘要:

    疾病传播受到信息传播、个体行为选择等因素的影响,过程复杂,为了研究各种因素对疾病传播影响的内在机理,提出了一个交互演化的层间耦合传播模型,分析信息传播、接种行为和疾病传播的动态过程所涉及的6种耦合影响关系。在耦合模型的信息层,讨论行为和疾病对信息传播的影响;在耦合模型的行为层,讨论信息和疾病对接种行为的影响;在耦合模型的疾病层,讨论信息和行为对疾病传播的影响。采用微观马尔科夫链方法分析该模型,得到耦合状态转化方程和疾病流行阈值,通过模拟仿真实验讨论该耦合因素对疾病传播阈值和疾病传播规模的影响。研究结果表明,加强信息的传播,鼓励个体接种疫苗,是更好地控制疾病传播的两大关键因素。

    Abstract:

    The process of disease transmission is influenced by the information diffusion and individual behavioral choices, which is relatively complex. To investigate the intrinsic mechanism of various factors on the disease transmission, an interactive evolutionary interlayer coupled transmission model was proposed to analyze the six coupled influence relationships involved in the dynamic process of information diffusion, vaccination behavior and disease transmission. In the information layer of the coupled model, the implication of behavior and disease on the dissemination of information was analyzed. In the behavior layer of the coupled model, the influence of information and disease on the vaccination behavior was examined, and in the disease layer of the coupled model, the impact of information and behavior on the transmission of disease was explored. The micro Markov chain approach (MMCA) was used to analyze the model, and to obtain the coupled state transformation equations and disease prevalence thresholds. The effects of the coupling factor on the disease transmission threshold and the scale of the disease transmission were discussed through simulation experiments. The results indicate that enhancing the diffusion of information and encouraging individuals to get vaccinated are two key factors for better control of disease transmission.

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武兵杰,霍良安.疾病传播过程中的层间耦合影响问题研究[J].上海理工大学学报,2024,46(4):452-463.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-03-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-09-18
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