宏观经济信息发布对价格跳跃及后续收益率可预测性的影响
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

F 830.9

基金项目:

国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(72103138);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题资助项目(2019BJB023)


Impact of macroeconomic news announcements on price jumps and subsequent return predictability
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    为了研究不同类型的宏观经济信息发布对基金市场价格跳跃的触发作用以及对后续收益率可预测性的影响,使用跳跃过滤检验法对基金的日内收益率进行了跳跃侦测,构造了logistic回归模型及面板回归模型。研究发现:宏观经济信息发布对跳跃有显著的触发作用,但定期信息的作用远大于不定期信息;在定期信息引发价格跳跃后基金收益率会出现反转,不定期信息引发跳跃后未出现显著的收益动量或收益反转,但定期信息跳和非定期信息跳后基金收益率反转都得到了缓解。此外,市场对不定期信息的反应程度低于对定期信息的反应程度,市场反应过度主要集中在定期信息上。揭示了基金市场对定期信息与不定期信息反应的非对称性,为投资决策提供参考。

    Abstract:

    In order to investigate the triggering effects of various types of macroeconomic news announcements on price jumps in the fund market and the news effects on the predictability of subsequent returns, this article implemented the jump filtered test to detect jumps in fund intraday returns, and constructs logistic regression models as well as panel regression models. Results show that macroeconomic news announcements have a significant triggering effect on jumps. The triggering effect of scheduled news is much greater than that of unscheduled news. Returns reverse following jumps associated with scheduled news, whereas no significant momentum or reversal of returns are observed following jumps associated with unscheduled news. However, both jumps associated with scheduled news and those with unscheduled news alleviate the reversal of returns. In addition, the market's response to unscheduled news is not as strong as its response to scheduled news. Market overreaction is mainly concentrated on scheduled news. This study reveals asymmetric response patterns of the fund market to scheduled versus unscheduled news announcements, and provides reference for investment decisions.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

肖悦文.宏观经济信息发布对价格跳跃及后续收益率可预测性的影响[J].上海理工大学学报,2025,47(5):603-612.

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-07-07
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-21
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码