基于最优特征选择和“ABL+XGB”的电力负荷混合预测方法
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TM 73

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72371139);教育部人文社会科学规划项目(20YJA630009);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2022MG002)


Power load hybrid forecasting method based on optimal feature selection and "ABL+XGB"
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    摘要:

    精准的电力负荷预测是保障电网安全与经济调度的关键。然而,预测过程受时间、天气、经济等多重因素影响,高维数据和冗余信息使预测过程复杂化,降低了预测精度。为此,提出一种基于最优特征选择与“Attention-Bi-LSTM + XGBoost”(“ABL+XGB”)的混合预测方法。该方法综合考虑27种影响因素,通过对比6种特征选择方法,筛选出最优特征子集,并采用“ABL+XGB”组合模型进行预测。基于新加坡与挪威电力市场实际数据集的实验结果表明,所提方法具有较高的预测精度,Lasso回归结合组合预测模型结果最接近真实负荷且误差最小,验证了有效的特征选择对于提升电力负荷预测准确性的重要作用。

    Abstract:

    Accurate power load forecasting is crucial to grid security and economic dispatch. However, the forecasting process is influenced by multiple factors including temporal, meteorological, and economic variables. This leads to high-dimensional data with significant redundancy, which increases complexity and reduces forecasting precision. To address this issue, a hybrid forecasting method that integrates optimal feature selection with a combined model of Attention-Bi-LSTM and XGBoost was proposed, referred to as the "ABL+XGB" model. This approach considered 27 influencing factors, employed 6 feature selection methods to identify the optimal feature subset, and utilized the proposed "ABL-XGB" model for prediction. Experimental results based on datasets from the Singapore and Norway electricity markets demonstrate that the proposed hybrid forecasting model has a high accuracy, and the prediction results of Lasso regression method combined with the prediction model are closer to the real data and the error is smaller than other feature selection methods, which indicates that a good feature selection method is essential for achieving accurate power load prediction.

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刘康宁,代业明,曹书宁.基于最优特征选择和“ABL+XGB”的电力负荷混合预测方法[J].上海理工大学学报,2026,48(2):183-193.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-11
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