供应不确定风险下的应急采购策略
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F 405; TP 18

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72272046);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJC630024)


Emergency procurement strategies under the risk of supply uncertainty
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    摘要:

    针对供应中断和产量不稳定双重风险下的制造商应急采购决策问题,构建包含制造商和供应商的双层供应链模型,分析了制造商在单源采购中普通零部件采购、关键零部件采购和双源应急采购3种不同情况下的最优采购策略。研究发现:供应商中断概率的降低不仅能够提升其在供应链中的议价能力,还为制造商创造更高利润,形成双赢局面;供应商产量不稳定不仅会降低供应商的期望利润,还会迫使制造商增加订货量而承担更多的供应不确定风险。在双源应急采购中,供应商之间中断概率的相关性强化了高稳定性供应商的竞争优势;并且,当采购价格和中断风险同时增大时,双源应急采购在可靠性和成本效益上的优势显著显现;此外,双源应急采购能够使得供应链不稳定性降低,尤其在高中断风险、高采购成本环境下,该策略能有效提升供应链韧性。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the emergency procurement strategies of manufacturers facing supply disruption and yield uncertainty risks,a two-tier supply chain model that includes manufacturers and suppliers was constructed. The optimal procurement strategies for manufacturers in three different purchasing scenarios: single-source procurement of ordinary and critical components, and dual-source emergency procurement were analyzed. The results show that reducing the disruption probability of suppliers not only enhances their bargaining power but also generates higher profits for manufacturers, resulting in a win-win situation. Additionally, production instability on the part of suppliers not only reduces their expected profits but also forces manufacturers to increase order quantities, thereby assuming greater risks associated with supply uncertainty. In dual-source emergency procurement, the correlation between disruption probabilities among suppliers strengthens the competitive edge of high-stability suppliers. Furthermore, when both procurement prices and disruption risks increase simultaneously, the advantages of dual-source emergency procurement in terms of reliability and cost-effectiveness become significantly evident. Beyond this, the dual-source emergency procurement contributes to reducing supply chain instability, particularly in the environments characterized by high disruption risks and high procurement costs, where this strategy effectively enhances supply chain resilience.

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傅啸,毛佳豪,尹庆,韩广华.供应不确定风险下的应急采购策略[J].上海理工大学学报,2025,47(2):119-128.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-21
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