基于元胞自动机的生物多样性与疾病风险关系
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Q 141

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(31700466)


Relationship between biodiversity and disease risk based on cellular automata
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    摘要:

    在全球生物多样性迅速丧失的背景下,生物多样性变化对疾病风险的影响备受关注。尽管已有研究表明生物多样性与疾病风险之间存在关联,但二者关系的具体机制仍存在争议。为揭示影响这一关系的关键生态因素,本研究基于元胞自动机(cellular automata, CA)模型,系统分析了物种空间分布格局、群落构建方式、宿主生活史权衡及疾病传播距离等因素对生物多样性?疾病风险关系的影响。结果显示,物种空间分布格局、宿主生活史权衡和疾病传播距离均显著影响感染者数量,但未改变生物多样性与疾病风险关系的总体趋势。其中,群落构建方式是决定该关系趋势的核心因素:在叠加式构建群落中,生物多样性的增加会加剧疾病风险(表现为“放大效应”);而在替代式构建群落中,则呈现“先放大后稀释”的复合效应。此外,物种空间分布格局和疾病传播距离对疾病风险的影响具有明显空间异质性。本研究通过CA模型提供了一个新的理论框架,加深了对生物多样性?疾病风险关系的理解,也为制定更具科学依据的疾病预防与控制策略提供了理论支持。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of rapid global biodiversity loss, the impact of biodiversity change on disease risk has attracted considerable attention. Although previous studies have demonstrated an association between biodiversity and disease risk, the underlying mechanisms governing this relationship remain controversial. To identify the key ecological factors influencing the biodiversity-disease risk relationship, a cellular automata (CA) model to systematically investigate the effects of species spatial distribution patterns, community assembly patterns, host life-history trade-offs, and disease transmission distance was employed. The results show that species spatial distribution patterns, host life-history trade-offs and the disease transmission distance significantly affect the number of infected individuals, but do not alter the overall trend of the biodiversity-disease risk relationship. Among these factors, community assembly patterns are the key factor determining the overall trend of the biodiversity-disease risk relationship. Under additive communities assembly, increasing biodiversity will intensify disease risk, exhibiting an amplification effect. Under substitutive communities assembly, increasing biodiversity exhibits a composite effect characterized by an initial amplification effect followed by a dilution effect. Furthermore, the effects of species spatial distribution patterns and the disease transmission distance on disease risk exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity. By applying a CA model, this study provides a novel theoretical framework, deepens the understanding of the biodiversity–disease risk relationship, and provides theoretical support for developing more evidence-based disease prevention and control strategies.

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谭芷滢,陈立范,孔平.基于元胞自动机的生物多样性与疾病风险关系[J].上海理工大学学报,2026,48(4):494-502.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-15
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