同时考虑时间与运输风险不确定的危险品多式联运路径选择的鲁棒优化研究
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U 116.2;O 224

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北京市自然科学基金资助项目 (9222024)


Robust optimization for intermodal routing selection of hazardous materials under time and transportation risk uncertainties
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    摘要:

    针对碳交易政策下危险品多式联运路径优化中时间与运输风险的双重不确定性,提出一种基于混合鲁棒优化的路径决策方法。首先,综合考虑运输与转运过程中的成本、风险及碳减排需求,构建以系统总成本最小化为目标的确定性模型;其次,引入盒式不确定集合,刻画时间与运输风险的波动特征,建立鲁棒优化模型,并提出多策略蚁群改进(multi-strategy enhanced ant colony optimization, MSE-ACO)算法。以江苏某化工园区企业为案例验证表明:MSE-ACO算法在复杂环境下表现出极高鲁棒性。时间约束强度是路径决策的关键调节因素,且各不确定性参数及其协同效应对决策具有显著异质性影响。碳约束对最优路径的影响具有显著阈值特征。

    Abstract:

    To address the dual uncertainties of transit time and transportation risk in hazardous materials multimodal routing optimization under carbon trading policies, this paper proposed a path decision-making method based on hybrid robust optimization. First, a deterministic model aiming at minimizing the total system cost was constructed by comprehensively considering transportation, transshipment, risk costs and carbon emission reduction requirements. Second, a box uncertainty set was adopted to describe the fluctuation characteristics of transit time and transportation risk, on which a robust optimization model was established, and a multi-strategy enhanced ant colony optimization (MSE-ACO) algorithm was designed to solve the model. A case study of an enterprise located in a chemical industrial park in Jiangsu Province verified that the MSE-ACO algorithm possesses outstanding robustness under complex environments. The intensity of time constraints acts as a crucial regulating factor for path decision-making. In addition, each uncertain parameter as well as their synergistic effects imposes significantly heterogeneous impacts on decision results. Moreover, the influence of carbon constraints on the optimal path presents an obvious threshold characteristic.

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吴军,张倩倩,张维伟,赵来军.同时考虑时间与运输风险不确定的危险品多式联运路径选择的鲁棒优化研究[J].上海理工大学学报,2026,48(3):265-280.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-30
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